Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds Raised to Over 90% at Bloomberg, Drop on Polymarket

Odds of a spot bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) being approved in the U.S. have risen to more than 90%, two influential analysts at Bloomberg said, while crypto market participants at betting platform Polymarket became more pessimistic, trimming the odds to 85%.

Referring to the likelihood of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejecting proposals after Friday's flurry of updated filings, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said in a Saturday post: “I probably go with 5% at this point. But you gotta leave a little window open for these things.” He previously tipped the odds at 90% in November, saying that updated forms at the time indicated providers were moving in the right direction.

Well said although I probably go with 5% at this point. But you gotta leave a little window open for these things.

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) January 6, 2024

Crypto market participants, however, have a dimmer view of approval being granted before Jan. 15, a betting market on Polymarket suggests. Participants have cumulatively wagered about $500,000 on the approval being delayed, or even denied, lowering the odds from last week’s 90%.

Even so, much of the crypto market still expects key decisions by the SEC this week will lead to the first spot bitcoin ETFs being offered to professional investors in the country. A regulated offering is expected to attract billions of dollars in bitcoin demand, making it one of the most-watched catalysts in the asset’s history.

More than a dozen applicants hope to launch the first spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. On Friday, several amended 19b-4 filings, filed on behalf of BlackRock, Grayscale, Fidelity and other issuers, joined last month's amended S-1 filings, addressing feedback from the SEC.

Both the 19b-4 filings and the S-1 filings need to be approved before the ETFs can launch.